Indonesia: BI left the policy rate unchanged and pivoted slightly dovish

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia: BI left the policy rate unchanged and pivoted slightly dovish

Global Markets Research

22 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - ASEAN/Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsIndonesia: BI left the policy rate unchanged and

Asia Economicspivoted slightly dovish

Euben Paracuelles - NSL

• Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate at 5.75%, in line with our forecast but against euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

consensus’ expectations of a hike, preferring instead to use other tools to support FX. +65 6433 6956

Nabila Amani - NSL • However, BI also expanded its pro-growth measures via macroprudential easing and nabila.amani@nomura.com

liquidity-enhancing measures. On net, we think BI tilted more dovish, as a result. +65 6433 6409

• Still, we maintain our forecast of BI hiking by another 50bp in Q4 owing to balance of

payments pressures likely persisting, but acknowledge uncertainty remains high.

BI left its policy rate unchanged

After delivering a total of 100bp in hikes over a span of one month, BI left its policy rate

unchanged at 5.75% at today’s board of governors meeting, in line with our view, but

against the consensus’ forecast of a 25bp hike (although only with a small majority). The

policy corridor was also kept stable, with the lending facility rate maintained at 6.5% and

the deposit facility rate at 4.75%. Today’s on-hold decision is also consistent with the

latest daily readings of our Nomura BI Policy Indicator of External Risks (BI-PIER), which

showed a decline and therefore pointed to a lower probability of a rate hike (Figure 1).

BI cited in its policy statement that the decision is “an integrated part of BI’s policy mix,

which is consistent in strengthening the stability of IDR amidst persistently high global