Japan trade statistics: June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Japan trade statistics: June 2026

Global Markets Research

22 July 2026Japan trade statistics: June 2026

Economics - Japan

Research AnalystsGoods exports recover to level seen before

Japan Economicstensions in the Middle East escalated

Yuki Ito - NSC

Alternative sourcing from the US and other countries boosts crude oil yuki.ito@nomura.com

imports +81 3 6703 3867

• Real goods exports were up 2.1% m-m in June 2026 and real goods imports were up Kyohei Morita - NSC

7.7%. Goods exports recovered to the level seen before tensions in the Middle East kyohei.morita@nomura.com

escalated. +81 3 6703 1395

• Goods imports increased in June, led by petroleum. Crude oil imports recovered to more

than 80% of their 2025 average (prior to tensions in the Middle East escalating) thanks to

progress with alternative sourcing from the US and other regions.

• Goods exports rose, particularly to the Middle East. That said, we think it is important to

be aware of the risk that the US-Iran conflict could result in volume-related supply

constraints and logistics disruptions that could once again weigh on exports and imports.

Goods trade: June real goods exports recover to level before tensions in the Middle

East escalated

Nominal exports were up 19.3% y-y and nominal imports were up 25.4% in June 2026.

Growth in both exports and imports was higher than the respective Bloomberg median

consensus forecasts of +18.0% and +21.2% growth.

After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, we estimate that real goods exports were up

2.1% m-m in June 2026 and that real goods imports were up 7.7% (Figure2). Goods

exports have recovered to their average in 2025, before tensions in the Middle East

escalated.

Imports by category: Crude oil imports up, buoyed by alternative procurement from