JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Nomura | JPY Intraday Comment 22 July 2026

team’sestimates,medium-tolong-terminflationexpectations,whicharealsoincludedin

thechartsoftheBOJ’sOutlookReport,arelikelytohavereached2%intheApril-June

quarterof2026. Against this backdrop, concerns within the BOJ over upside risks to

inflation appear to have intensified further.

The BOJ is still unlikely to consider a back-to-back rate hike next week, and at the coming

July meeting, attention will be paid to whether the BOJ changes its forward guidance and,

at Governor Ueda’s post-meeting press conference, how strongly he signals a willingness

to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. Comments from government officials in response to

this hawkish Bloomberg report will also be worth monitoring, particularly in terms of

whether a faster pace of rate hikes will actually be implemented.

Ruling parties are beginning to feel a sense of crisis, as support for the Takaichi

cabinet falls

According to an ANN poll released on 20 July, the disapproval rating for the Takaichi

cabinet rose to 34.8%, up 11.8ppt from the previous month’s 23.0%, marking the highest

level recorded in the survey since the cabinet was formed (Fig.1). The survey was

conducted on 18-19 July. The cabinet approval rating also fell to 49.2%, down 10.9ppt

from 60.1% in the previous month. A MainichiShimbun poll released on 19 July also

showed the cabinet approval rating falling to 41% from 51% the previous month, while the

disapproval rating rose to 44% from 35%.

According to Reuters today, the decline in cabinet approval and the rise in disapproval have

prompted views within the government and ruling parties that Prime Minister Takaichi’s own

political footing is becoming less secure. There is also reportedly growing concern within the