BOJ Watch: July Monetary Policy Meeting preview

Research evidence excerpt

BOJ Watch: July Monetary Policy Meeting preview

Global Markets Research

22 July 2026BOJ Watch

Economics - Japan

Research Analysts

July Monetary Policy Meeting preview Japan Economics

Kyohei Morita - NSCWe expect: (1) policy rate to be left unchanged; (2) CPI outlook to be kyohei.morita@nomura.com

trimmed, GDP outlook to be raised +81 3 6703 1395

Uichiro Nozaki - NSC • Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM): We expect the policy rate to be left unchanged. It is uichiro.nozaki@nomura.com

possible that some hawkish members will vote for a second consecutive rate hike. +81 3 6703 1284

• Outlook for economic activity and prices: We expect the BOJ to lower its CPI Japan Rates Strategy

inflation outlook and raise its GDP growth outlook in view of the situation in the Middle Mari Iwashita - NSC

East. However, we do not expect the BOJ to change its assessment that the mari.iwashita@nomura.com

distribution of risks to prices is skewed to the upside. +81 3 6703 3842

• Governor Ueda's press conference: We will be interested to see what he has to say Yuna Minegishi - NSC

about the BOJ's independence. yuna.minegishi@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1287

• External environment: The BOJ's independence looks to have been preserved,

notwithstanding the Basic Policy shock. We expect it to continue hiking interest rates

in view of upward pressure on prices from the summer.

Monetary Policy Meeting: We expect: (1) policy rate to be left unchanged; and (2)

focus on whether members will vote in favor of rate hike

We expect the BOJ to leave the policy rate unchanged at its 30–31 July Monetary Policy

Meeting (MPM). It just recently hiked interest rates in June, and we expect it to adopt a

wait-and-see stance at the July MPM while keeping a close eye on the impact of rate

hikes to date.