Rare Earths Discussion Takeaways: Demand Growth, Western pricing, and Supply Bottlenecks

Research evidence excerpt

Rare Earths Discussion Takeaways: Demand Growth, Western pricing, and Supply Bottlenecks

Update

July 24, 2026 12:39 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Rare Earths Discussion R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Takeaways: Demand Growth,

Western pricing, and Supply

Bottlenecks Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We hosted a discussion with a rare earth market intelligence and Industry View Attractive

consulting firm on the demand and pricing outlook for rare

earths, ex-China pricing dynamics, emerging robotics and data-

centre demand, and ex-China supply constraints.

Key Takeaways

China NdPr prices may hold near US$100-110/kg through 2029, supporting near-

term expansions, before rising above US$150/kg in early 2030s.

Ex-China NdPr premiums of ~30% look acceptable for long-term supply

agreements. Western price assessments remain immature, with thinly traded

volumes.

Magnet demand is forecast CAGR of ~9% in 2025-40 by the consultant, with

NdPr at ~10-11% and Dy/Tb at ~7-8%, despite thrifting efforts by producers.

Announced Ex-China magnet capacity plans could reach ~75-100kt by 2030, but

lagging upstream feedstock volumes may constrain utilisation rates in outer

years.

Humanoids to become the largest magnet end market by 2040, reaching ~40m

humanoid units produced p.a and using atleast ~50-60 actuators per robot.

Strong NdFeB magnet demand growth supports NdPr, while constrained ex-

China supply underpins Dy/Tb premiums: The speaker forecasts permanent

magnet demand growing at ~9% CAGR between 2025 and 2040, with NdPr rising

~10-11% and Dy/Tb growing ~7-8%. Slower heavy rare earth growth reflects