DataDig: Pull Factor

Research evidence excerpt

DataDig: Pull Factor

Idea

June 29, 2026 01:38 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

DataDig: Pull Factor R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Charts, analysis, and comparables for the global mining sector.

Ex-China NdFeB magnet capacity is scaling. US capacity could reach ~28ktpa by

2028 from proven producers, or ~35ktpa including potential new entrants, well

above current US bulk magnet imports of ~8.5ktpa. Broader potential beyond 2028

could reach ~50-55ktpa if funded and prospective projects are included (here). Australia Materials

Outside the US, Europe has ~3.6ktpa of current capacity, led by Vacuumschmelze Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

(VAC) in Germany, Neorem in Finland, and Neo Performance Materials in Estonia.

Recent Research:However, Europe imports ~22.5ktpa of magnets from China and should see demand

Iluka Resources Ltd: Commercial offtakegrowth from EVs, wind, industrial, and robotics. Japan is more established with

validates industry and ILU's project, unlocks~6.8ktpa, while Korea and Vietnam have smaller capacities. Energy Fuels' recent US

funding (23 Jun 2026)$1.9bn agreement to acquire VAC further highlights mine-to-magnet integration as a

Australia Materials: Takeaways from Rare EarthWestern strategic priority. At ~28ktpa, US magnet output would require ~10ktpa of

Permanent Magnet Industry Discussion (23 JunNdPr oxide, potentially covered by planned US capacity including MP Materials

2026)(covered by Carlos De Alba). However, constraints remain in oxide-to-metal

Energy Security: Virtual ASEAN Summit 2026conversion and heavy rare earth supply, while higher production targets would