DataDig: Pullback Playbook

Research evidence excerpt

DataDig: Pullback Playbook

Idea

July 13, 2026 02:33 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

DataDig: Pullback Playbook R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Charts, analysis, and comparables for the global mining sector.

We think recent mining sector weakness reflects profit-taking after an 18-month run,

rather than a cycle inflection. The pullback creates opportunity to rotate into

commodities with stronger demand fundamentals, led by copper and uranium. Our

3Q Strategy and rating changes reflect this rotation: RIO.AX moves to UW from EW, Australia Materials

as aluminium momentum likely fades (see here), and merger-talk risk could revive Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

after August 5. DRR to UW from OW after recent strong performance, and our more

Recent Research:cautious IO outlook. In uranium, term prices have hit US$95–97/lb, spot demand

Investor Presentation: Asia Summer School:remains firm, seeing a ~13.5mlb 2026 deficit; PDN (OW; OOP #2) remains a key

Australia Materials (9 Jul 2026)beneficiary; BOE (OW; OOP #3) offers upside potential through improved mine plan

Metals & Mining: 2Q26 Production Previews –outcomes. In copper, strategic demand support keeps BHP OW (OOP #1) and our

Diversified Miners (9 Jul 2026)preferred exposure. SFR moves to EW from UW, given our copper preference and

Australia Materials: Quarterly Preview: June'26consensus estimates largely conservative around Motheo (a key concern for us

Qtr (8 Jul 2026)previously). For lithium, risks remain from CATL restart/returning supply, but