Australia Rates Insights

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Rates Insights

Global Markets Research

23 July 2026Australia Rates Insights

Rates - Asia ex-Japan/Australasia

Research Analysts

Jobs jump Australia/New Zealand Rates

Strategy

Hawkish news (net-net) for the RBA, and we remain paid AU3m1y vs US. Andrew Ticehurst - NAL

andrew.ticehurst@nomura.com

+61 2 8062 8611

• Employment surged by 76k in June, well above consensus and our expectations,

although the unemployment rate also rose by a fraction to 4.43% from 4.37%.

• It is possible that job gains were boosted a little by the national census, to be

conducted on August 11, while it is also possible that cost of living pressures

contributed to a jump in the participation rate.

• We regard this report as “net hawkish” in terms of our RBA thinking; we do not expect

an August hike but think the RBA will retain a hawkish tone, and on the strategy side,

we see this report as helpful for our paidAU3m1yversusUS3m1y position.

The bottom line

The June labour force release contained some mixed news, but we regard it as

solid, all up. Job growth was much stronger than expected (76k versus 15k), the

participation rate surged, and hours worked also rose. On the softer side, the

unemployment rate did rise a fraction and underemployment jumped by 0.2pp.

The report does raise a few questions. Some will see the jump in participation as a sign

of macro strength, although it could also reflect some consumer stress amid ongoing cost-

of-living pressures, with some households perhaps sending an additional person into the

labour force. Job growth may also have been boosted a little by a “census effect”; the ABS

will conduct a national census on 11 August; this occurs every five years and has

temporarily boosted employment (pre-census) in the past.