Türkiye

Research evidence excerpt

Türkiye

Fatih Akcelik (44 20) 3493 7285 Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A Nfatih.akcelik@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 July 2026

Türkiye basis, headline momentum picks up to 2.4% sa, from 1.7% in

June, while core inflation momentum climbs to 2.6% sa, from

• Middle East re-escalation delays CBRT easing 2.0% (Figure 2).

• July CPI to show increased inflation momentum Figure 2: Core inflation Core C inflation

sa, MoM, % Core Goods

This week’s CBRT rate decision was shaped by the renewed 6 Services

escalation in the Middle East, which lifted Brent crude oil 5

prices close to $100/bbl, hence, the CBRT did not resume

one-week repo auctions at 37% this week. In our view, the re-

escalation has postponed both the resumption of one-week 3

repo auctions – now likely deferred until September – and the 2

anticipated start of the rate cutting cycle to October. 1

As expected by both us and the Bloomberg consensus, the 0 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26

CBRT kept the one-week repo rate unchanged at 37% and the Source: CBRT, J.P. Morgan

overnight lending rate at 40%. In practice, and against our

The acceleration is led by services, where momentum rose to

expectations for this week`s meeting, the 37% policy rate has

3.1% sa, from 2.5% in June. Part of this reflects one-off

not been the effective funding rate since early March. Follow-

increases: regulated health service fees added an estimated

ing the escalation in the Middle East, the CBRT suspended

0.2%-pt to the July print, while communication prices were

one-week repo auctions and withdrew liquidity from the mon-

hiked. The pressure extends well beyond these, however, with

ey market, pushing the effective cost of funding up to the

rents rising on higher contract renewals and restaurants and