China: A preview of the July Politburo

Research evidence excerpt

China: A preview of the July Politburo

Tingting Ge Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N(852) 2800-0143 24 July 2026

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

is likely to include accelerating the use of policy-bank instruments as seed capital and

maintaining an accommodative monetary stance to ensure ample liquidity as government

bond issuance ramps up. The Finance Minister Lan has recently also highlighted the

deployment of the existing RMB100bn central fiscal allocation backing six fiscal-financial

policy tools, including interest subsidies, guarantees and risk-sharing mechanisms, to

channel credit toward consumption, equipment upgrading, SMEs and private-sector

investment.

AI tech/national security over consumption. We expect the policymakers to recognize the

two-speed economy feature, but AI, advanced manufacturing and national-security-related

investment will remain the clearest policy beneficiaries. At the April Politburo meeting,

national security was elevated as an overarching principle of economic policy, aligning

closely with the emerging priorities of the 15th FYP. Policymakers emphasized accelerating

self-reliance in core technologies, strengthening domestic control over industrial and supply

chains, and enhancing energy and resource security. We expect these priorities to remain

intact, implying that incremental policy support will continue to tilt toward AI infrastructure,

high-tech manufacturing, computing power networks, energy security and other strategic

sectors (six networks).

The newly released Consumption 15th FYP has raised market expectations for stronger

demand-side support. The plan targets a higher household consumption ratio and retail sales

of around RMB60tn by 2030, implying average growth of roughly 3.7% per year. Policy