G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 24 July 2026

EUR As expected, the ECB meeting was uneventful and pricing for September remained roughly

unchanged at 24bps. We move on. But if I told you that after printing a YTD low on the 24th of

June, Brent has rallied 35%, Gas ~46% and SHFs have sold EUR for 24 consecutive days, that

the single currency is actually higher, would you be surprised ? I am. Now I am not sure what

this actually means apart from reminding us that FX is hard ! European PMIs printed better than

AUD expected this morning, but considering the first part of the survey was taken during the 60-day

ceasefire, should we be surprised ?Anyway, you know my view on PMI data and any reaction

has been well contained. As I had written in previous commentaries, I was concerned about

high beta due to the M/E escalation and that I had rotated AUDUSD longs into GBPAUD which

NZD has insulated the position. I retain said position, but will remain flexible, with next week’s Q2

inflation report important. No firm view in the bird, but the move below 0.5800/25, technically

suggests the danger remains to the downside, even though interestingly, SHF’s continue to be a

buyer of NZD (13 out of the last 15 days) although a 2 day close below the aforementioned

level, could change that behaviour.

GBP The TACO thesis continues to be challenged creating uneven moves in markets as oil just

marches higher, tariffs are BACK, throw in a Fed hike next week and we might reach peak

Trump if he turns on Warsh. No surprise then that our USD conviction remains pretty marginal

in this environment but we have seen a decent chase in the USD this week with SHF and DHF

buying every session.