Cleanaway Waste Management: FY26 Preview: FY27 FCF target to frame the debate

Research evidence excerpt

Cleanaway Waste Management: FY26 Preview: FY27 FCF target to frame the debate

Lee Power AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-8725 24 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

lee.power@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

CWY is an integrated waste management and recycling provider

in Australia that has historically grown through acquisitions.

The company has filled the gaps in its value chain and

geographic exposure in recent years and now has a number of

prized infrastructure assets and licences across the country. In

our view, an increased focus on the management of waste by

government, companies and consumers and a shift to a circular

economy will likely be meaningful long-term positives for

national, vertically integrated scale operators such as CWY at

YTD 1m 3m 12m the expense of smaller operators with limited access to capital

Abs -8.9% 0.4% 0.8% -17.2% and exposure to only some segments of the value chain.

Rel -11.5% -0.3% -0.3% -18.8%

Additionally, over time, we expect government policy decisions

Company Data to lead waste management value chain industry returns to

Shares O/S (mn) 2,241 continue to shift downstream with higher barriers to entry and

52-week range (A$) 2.96-2.14 more infrastructure-like returns. Following multiple years of

Market cap ($ mn) 3,685.89

Exchange rate 1.44 investment in digital modernisation and the business

Free float (%) 88.8% transformation, we expect CWY to deliver materially higher

3M ADV (mn) 16.28 free cash flow, which underpins our positive view on the stock.

3M ADV ($ mn) 26.1

Volatility (90 Day) 26 Valuation

Index ASX 100

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 12|1|0 Our Jul-27 price target of A$2.90/share is based on our blended

DCF (WACC: 7%) and comparables-based SOTP EV/EBITDA