27/3 Q1 results: Q2 shipment guidance exceeds our forecast

Research evidence excerpt

27/3 Q1 results: Q2 shipment guidance exceeds our forecast

Global Markets Research

23 July 2026Disco

6146.T 6146 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT

Rating27/3 Q1 results: Q2 shipment guidance exceeds

Remains Neutralour forecast

Target price

We raise earnings forecasts to reflect Q1 results, our USD/JPY Increased from 72,500 JPY 78,700

assumption for a weaker yen, and TSMC's raised capex assumption

Closing price JPY 69,410We raise our earnings forecasts to reflect increased capex plans at customers, retain our 23 July 2026

Neutral rating

Q1 operating profits were broadly in line with our estimation following preliminary nonconsolidated data, Implied upside +13.4%

and Q2 guidance is lower than our forecast, but this came as no surprise given management's

tendency to be cautious in its handover plans. Q2 shipment guidance, an area of particular interest to

investors, is ¥141.0bn (up 4% q-q), higher than our forecast of ¥127.0bn. Our impression is that it is

close to market expectations following the release of preliminary nonconsolidated data. We raise our Relative performance chart

operating profit forecasts for 27/3 onwards to reflect upward revisions to our Q2 shipment forecast in

view of results, which included continued strong shipments of HBM, a change in our USD/JPY

assumption to a weaker yen (boosting 29/3 shipment expectations by around ¥10.0bn), and upward

revisions to our forecast for shipments related to advanced packaging as TSMC raised its capex

assumptions (boosting 29/3 shipment expectations by just over ¥40.0bn). We raise our target price,

which we obtain by multiplying our 29/3 EPS forecast by a P/E of 33–34x, as we roll forward the base

year for our calculation from 28/3 to 29/3 to reflect improved prospects for market growth in 2028.