Japanese equity quantitative strategy: Preview of share price reactions to 27/3 Q1 results announcements

Research evidence excerpt

Japanese equity quantitative strategy: Preview of share price reactions to 27/3 Q1 results announcements

Global Markets Research

Japanese equity quantitative strategy 23 July 2026

EQUITY: EQUITY QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH

Preview of share price reactions to 27/3 Q1 results Research Analysts

announcements Japan quantitative research

Shin Nishioka - NSC

Unusual reversal following 26/3 Q4 results, focus this time around shin.nishioka@nomura.com

on bullish guidance, strong performance versus guidance +81 3 6703 3948

Makoto Furukawa - NSC

Share prices fell sharply for stocks with bullish guidance following release of 26/3 makoto.furukawa@nomura.com

Q4 results +81 3 6703 1174

The Q1 results announcement season for companies with a March year-end is about to

Shunta Tachinaka, CFA - NSC

get under way, and we think it worth looking back at share price reactions to results from shunta.tachinaka@nomura.com

the previous quarter in particular in order to gauge what may happen this time around. +81 3 6703 1212

Normally, interest in the past quarter tends to wane, but the 26/3 Q4 results season saw

unusual behavior, with rapid share price recoveries for companies that had issued bearish

guidance but substantial underperformance for companies that had issued bullish

guidance, at a slight lag (Figure 1 ). Put another way, share price reactions were

contrarian with respect to the indicator we call “guidance versus pre-announcement

analyst consensus”. This was consistent with the views we expressed in our 23 April 2026

report Japan equity quantitative strategy - Preview of share price reactions to 26/3 Q4

results . We noted that analysts had made a string of downward revisions to earnings

forecasts just before Q4 results were released, and that the more downbeat expectations