ECB review: The seven weeks to September

Research evidence excerpt

ECB review: The seven weeks to September

Global Markets Research

23 July 2026European Insights

Economics - EMEA/Euro Area/Europe

ECB review: The seven weeks to September ResearchEuropean EconomicsAnalysts

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

• The ECB left rates unchanged and Mme Lagarde indicated that the decision was andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

unanimous, both as we had expected. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

George Buckley - NIplc • Mme Lagarde gave as strong a signal as possible that the ECB will hike rates in george.buckley@nomura.com

September without saying it outright. She used similar wording to that used in April to +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

underscore the importance of the upcoming seven weeks.

Josie Anderson - NIplc

• The initial statement was markedly pared back relative to normal. This, in our view, josie.anderson@nomura.com

underscores the sizeable uncertainty that the ECB faces owing to the re-escalation of +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

the Iran war and its geographical broadening to include the Strait of Bab al-Mandab

(Red Sea). The initial statement emphasised that uncertainty remains elevated and

that the ECB is still evaluating the pass-through of the initial phase of the Iran war to

the euro area economy.

• We believe the ECB will raise rates in September and lift the depo rate to 2.50% from

its current level of 2.25%. Additionally, we evaluate the conditions necessary for the

ECB to raise rates by more than we expect by December 2026.

• We believe ECBspeak tomorrow will lean hawkish, though this is in an outright sense

rather than versus market pricing – i.e. signalling more strongly that the ECB will hike

in September. With markets pricing so much already and September basically priced,

it’s a struggle to see these post-ECB stories adding much to near-term pricing, which