Recovery on bigger tractors and broader markets: Product mix upgrade and cost discipline should drive earnings growth ahead of revenue

Research evidence excerpt

Recovery on bigger tractors and broader markets: Product mix upgrade and cost discipline should drive earnings growth ahead of revenue

nst near-term domestic demand headwinds. -14

Research and Markets forecasts the global agricultural machinery and equipment market to

-23

expand from USD183.87bn in 2026 to USD256.99bn by 2032, implying a CAGR of 5.70%. 25/07 25/10 26/01 26/04 26/07

According to First Tractor’s IR activity record, its overseas distribution network progressed

from initial build-out to scaled expansion and quality enhancement during the 14th Five-Year Source: Gildata

Plan period. Its overseas revenue grew at a CAGR of nearly 23% in 2021-25 and

contributed 11% of total revenue in 2025. Supported by the export synergies with other Research Analysts

SINOMACH companies, we forecast the company’s overseas mix to reach 14% by 2028F

China Machineryand contribute c.26% of total incremental revenue over 2026-28F.

Higher-horsepower and intelligent products to support better margins

Fan Zhang - NOI

We see domestic tractor demand diverging by horsepower, with larger tractors

noiresearch@nomura.com

outperforming smaller models. According to First Tractor’s 2025 annual report, it has built a

SAC Registration No.: S1720525080001

high-end tractor portfolio spanning 220-450hp and continues to advance continuously

variable transmission, full powershift and intelligent-driving technologies. While the Jingshu Fang - NOI

company’s tractor sales fell from 72.4k units in 2023 to 63.7k in 2025, our estimates suggest noiresearch@nomura.com

the ASP rose from CNY146.0k to CNY155.2k, driven by a richer mix of high-horsepower and SAC Registration No.: S1720525100001

intelligent products, as pricing rises with horsepower and product sophistication. Despite