US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

23 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Joblessclaims: Initial claims fell to 187k for the week ending 18 July (Consensus: 210k) +1 212 667 9347

from 209k previously. Note, this is the lowest print for initial claims since September 1969. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

Continuing claims ticked down to 1796k (Consensus: 1809k) for the week ending 11 July jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

from a downwardly revised 1798k previously. Initial claims fell ~54k on an NSA basis, +1 212 667 9637

while continuing claims ticked up on an NSA basis. Ruchir Sharma - NSI

Seasonal factors are noisy around this time of the year. Consequently, we would discount ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186some steep decline. That said, claims have been trending lower after peaking in June,

which point to a fairly resilient labor market.

Budgetresolution: Yesterday, the House passed a budget resolution, which includes

instructions on its third reconciliation bill ("Reconciliation 3.0"). It's a $95bn (0.3% of GDP)

package that would circumvent a filibuster by Democrats in the Senate, providing fresh

funds to the military, intelligence programs, farm aid, and election security. There are no

"pay-fors" to offset the budget impact in the instructions, which frustrated Republican fiscal

hawks. However, to appease hardline conservatives, Speaker Johnson pledged a fourth

reconciliation bill following the mid-term elections. That lame duck reconciliation bill is

controversial, but it could have a negative impact on economic growth in 2027 or later.

Currently, there is focus on whether the Senate Republicans will adopt the same budget