MOH 2Q26: Reducing 2027-2030 EPS by 8-9% primarily on weaker Marketplace outlook; new PT is $266

Research evidence excerpt

MOH 2Q26: Reducing 2027-2030 EPS by 8-9% primarily on weaker Marketplace outlook; new PT is $266

24 July 2026

Lance Wilkes

+1 917 344 8501

U.S. Healthcare Services lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.com

Molina Healthcare Inc. Adam Chow

+1 212 845 7820

Rating adam.chow@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Kevin Peterson

Price Target +1 917 344 8358

kevin.peterson@bernsteinsg.com

MOH 266.00 USD (286.00 OLD)

MOH 2Q26: Reducing 2027-2030 EPS by 8-9% primarily on weaker

Marketplace outlook; new PT is $266

MOH reported 2Q26 earnings with adjusted EPS of $1.51 vs consensus EPS of $1.38 Close Date 23 Jul 2026

(9.2% beat). Reported MLR came in at 92.2%, ~30 bps lower than consensus at 92.5% and

MOH Close Price (USD) 200.29

~180 bps higher YoY vs 2Q25 of 90.4%.

Price Target (USD) 266.00

MLR beating expectations in MA, roughly inline in Medicaid and missing in Upside/(Downside) 33%

Marketplace - Medicaid MLR came in slightly lower than expected at 92.7%, landing 52-Week Range 244.89/121.06

~30 bps below cons. Medicare MLR came in at 90.7%, landing ~227 bps lower than cons SPX 7,408.30

and ~70 bps higher YoY. Marketplace of 88.9%, on the other hand, came in higher than FYE Dec

consensus (~497 bps higher) driven by prior year risk adjustment and unfavorable member Div Yield NA

acuity mix. Importantly, MOH described Medicaid and Medicare MLR performance as in line Market Cap (USD) (M) 10,455

with expectations, with positive Medicaid rate updates and stable cost trend, as well as lower EV (USD) (M) 5,493

medical cost trend and pricing discipline for Medicare. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 15.4 1.9 (0.8) 5.3

2026 guidance and status of government recovery - Molina is now expecting margin SPX (%) 8.2 0.6 7.1 16.5

deterioration of around 50-100bps with rates at 4% and cost trend at 5%.