JPM | Industrial Strength Morning Messages: Happy Friday - is it the 13th?

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | Industrial Strength Morning Messages: Happy Friday - is it the 13th?

gth of the VW brand, Porsche and Traton is offsetting the weaker start of the year for Audi.

We expect the market to focus on the negotiation of the restructuring measures which may impact the full-year guidance of the

group but will sustain strong earnings momentum in the medium term.

• SIGNIFY Q2 - ANALYST FIRST TAKE (HERE): Our Take: Q2 organic sales decline of -3.6% was in line with consensus

-3.5% but slightly better than -5.1% JPMe. However, Adj EBITA margin of 6.1% (down 170bps y/y) missed JPMe by 80bps

and consensus by 60bps, leading to an Adj EBITA miss of 11% and 9%, respectively. The margin miss was driven by the

Professional and Consumer segments, two core and important segments, while the OEM and Conventional segments came in

ahead of both our and consensus expectations. In the Consumer segment, Signify cited lower sell-in vs. sell-out (i.e. retailers

are lowering inventory), which suggests the Q2 margin miss in the segment could be a timing issue and will be a key follow-

up on the conference call. Adj gross margin in Q2 was down 110bps y/y, and pricing in H2 will be another question for the

call. Overall, H1 margins were down 160bps y/y and while the FY margin guidance was reiterated, we expect consensus to

likely move to the lower end of the 7.5-8.5% range, leading to ~MSD cuts to consensus FY Adj EBITA. Despite lower

earnings, Q2 FCF of €35mn was largely stable y/y.

• METSO Q2 - SPEC FIRST TAKE - BETTER ORDER SHOULD HELP: Metso has reported Q2 orders of €1,462mn,

+12% vs JPMe and +8% vs consensus. Revenues of €1,334mn are in-line with JPMe but 2% light of consensus. Adj EBITA

of €221mn is 2% light of both JPMe and consensus. Expect the better orders to see shares +LSD to start.