Carrefour, Ahold, Accor, ...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail • Luxury • Staples • Leisure • Airlines

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour, Ahold, Accor, ...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail • Luxury • Staples • Leisure • Airlines

overall. Earlier in June, Borja placed Ahold on -CW into 1H26 results on Aug 5. For context,

recall he had placed the shares on AFL in early May as the cracks in the investment case were appearing more evident - given a

slowdown across the broader market and Circana data that implies a deceleration in run rates, we expect 2Q to be reflective of

further top line slowdown/volume pressure, coupled with price investments denting margins. He lowered US IDs & margins and

also European LFLs & margins into the print - consensus seems to have followed, yet only trimming 2Q and not FY expectations,

altogether placing FY guidance and FY consensus at risk. See all details here

Accor (JPM OW) announced a binding agreement to sell 30.7% of Essendi to a consortium comprised of Blackstone and

Colony IM for €975mn (€675mn on closing and €300mn earn out) to be completed in Q4. Company sys it will return most of the

proceeds through an additional €500mn SBB.

Data & Laterals:

• UK consumer confidence improved 6pts in Jul to -17 (Jun -23, cons -22), representing the biggest move up since Nov-23

(albeit was last as high as thin in Jan-26). All measures improves with Personal Finances for the next 12 months moving into

positive territory to +1 (vs -2 in Jun) and Economic Situation for next 12 months at -28 (vs -36 in Jun). Climate for major

purchases also moved up +8pts to -12 (vs -20 in Jun). However, worth noting that Savings Intentions increased by +7pts to 27

(vs 20 in Jun), that is, a now higher intention to save. Release with commentary not available to us yet, but press are

referencing the weather, the World Cup, and a “Burnham bounce”.