Norfolk Southern: Holding to a Higher Standard

Research evidence excerpt

Norfolk Southern: Holding to a Higher Standard

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 July 2026

Norfolk Southern Neutral

NSC, NSC US

Holding to a Higher Standard Price (23 Jul 26):$348.55

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$338.00

Prior (Dec-26):$316.00

Norfolk Southern followed a similar pattern as CSX (recap here) and adjusted

faster and more efficiently to an unexpected volume surge, while also positioning Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingthe network for continued gains in 2H26. It is important to recognize that core price

did not provide much of a benefit to either company during 2Q26 while fuel created Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

an OR headwind. Norfolk’s performance was notable given the departure of its (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

high-profile COO on June 1, considering the company is still building its

reputation for solid execution and productivity gains. One of the key differences Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

compared to prior network slowdowns was a more intense top-down focus on grady.carr@jpmchase.com

holding the network performance to a higher standard, before it became a more

Brandon Wexler

significant problem. Momentum continues to build for stronger core price gains for (1-212) 622-1956

Merchandise and Intermodal, which should begin to materialize in 1Q27 given the brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

long lead time between truckload contract and realized rail rates. We expect the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

recent performance should create positive earnings revisions and boost the

standalone value of NSC, which is an important consideration with the UP/NS

Key Changes (FYE Dec)merger review process starting to pick up speed.

Prev Cur Δ

• Service metrics reporting a “good” grade. An unexpected volume surge put Adj.Adj.