14A Commitment Confirmed, Capex Inflecting Higher, Supply Still Short; Raising Ests, But External Foundry Proof Still Pending - Execution Remains Strong

Research evidence excerpt

14A Commitment Confirmed, Capex Inflecting Higher, Supply Still Short; Raising Ests, But External Foundry Proof Still Pending - Execution Remains Strong

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 July 2026

Intel

14A Commitment Confirmed, Capex Inflecting Higher, Underweight

Supply Still Short; Raising Ests, But External Foundry INTC, INTC US

Proof Still Pending - Execution Remains Strong Price (23 Jul 26):$100.23

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$85.00

Prior (Dec-26):$45.00

Q2 results and Q3 guidance cleared expectations by wide margins, reflecting

supply unlock (yields, cycle times, wafer starts), record DCAI/server momentum, Semiconductors & Semiconductor

Capital Equipment / IT Hardwareand firm pricing and mix, but a step-function capex cycle that puts a potential

equity/debt raise on the table, memory-driven erosion of the client TAM beginning Harlan Sur AC

in 2H26, and an external foundry business still lacking an anchor customer keep (1-415) 315-6700

harlan.sur@jpmorgan.com

us UW even as we materially raise estimates: (1) Server CPU demand is structural

but supply-gated - DCAI grew 59% Y/Y (+24% Q/Q, a record) at 40% OpM, now Mayur Ramdhani

(1-212) 622-1664

Intel’s largest profit pool, with Granite Rapids “extremely tight,” LTAs (Google + mayur.ramdhani@jpmorgan.com

others) extending visibility, strong-DD% industry unit growth expected in CY26/

Apoorva Kumar

CY27, and ASICs approaching a $2B run-rate (~3x Y/Y) en route to $4B against (1-212) 270-0668

a $100B+ TAM. Supply adds are back-end loaded into Q4 and gated by substrates/ apoorva.kumar@jpmorgan.com

T-glass/memory, making near-term revenue a supply-release story. (2) CCPG J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

upside was ASP/mix, not units, as INTC again under-shipped PC consumption