Aluminium Dashboard: Prices fall materially on supply growth fears, despite deficit markets; visible inventory remains elevated ahead of a looser 2027/28 balance

Research evidence excerpt

Aluminium Dashboard: Prices fall materially on supply growth fears, despite deficit markets; visible inventory remains elevated ahead of a looser 2027/28 balance

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

24 July 2026

Aluminium Dashboard

Prices fall materially on supply growth fears,

despite deficit markets; visible inventory remains

elevated ahead of a looser 2027/28 balance

Key takeaways: (1) Aluminium prices have fallen ~17% to ~US$3,200/t ($1.45/ Australia

lb) since early June on stubbornly high exchange inventory, soft demand, market

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

perceptions that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to elevated

volumes coming to market, and worries around Indonesian supply growth (JPMe Lyndon Fagan AC

+2.6Mt, 2025-28); from a supply-demand point of view, JPM’s Global (61-2) 9003-8648

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

Commodities Research team views the peak 2026 deficit as 2Q, which has now J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

passed, although the market still looks tight through the balance of the year. (2) Metals & Mining

Inventory remains elevated, above 2023-2025 levels – despite the 2Q26 deficit

Bill Peterson

(Arabian Gulf aluminium production down ~35% YoY in June), global visible

(1-415) 315-6766

inventory hasn’t drawn down materially (at 1.6Mt, it is up from ~1Mt this time last bill.peterson@jpmchase.com

year, and down just 145kt from the 1Q26 peak). JPM’s Global Commodities J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Research team has pointed to off-exchange inventory as a hidden source of Patrick Jones

aluminium units, China volumes continue to grow (just above 45Mtpa Feb-June), (44-20) 7742-5964

and global demand looks weak (apparent demand -2% YTD June). (3) On the raw patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com