AAL/ LUV/ ALK Earnings Takeaways: Fuel In The Limelight: 2Q26 Equity & Credit Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

AAL/ LUV/ ALK Earnings Takeaways: Fuel In The Limelight: 2Q26 Equity & Credit Takeaways

J P M O R G A N North America Fundamental

Research

23 July 2026

AAL/ LUV/ ALK Earnings

Takeaways

Fuel In The Limelight: 2Q26 Equity & Credit Takeaways

Earnings season could not be playing out any more differently than we once Airlines & Aircraft Leasing (Equity)

ACexpected. What was anticipated to broadly be a consensus-lifting exercise with a Jamie Baker

focus on multiple expansion, capacity creep and the industry’s ability to maintain (1-212) 622-6713

recent yield gains, has instead evolved into an estimate cutting exercise jamie.baker@jpmorgan.com

accompanied by a measurable level of disappointment that capacity isn’t exiting James M Kirby

more quickly. Granted, demand commentary has largely met our bullish (1-212) 622-8297

expectations, but fuel has once again hijacked the broader industry narrative, in our james.m.kirby@jpmchase.com

view. And unlike the initial fuel spike, there’s no airline teetering on collapse to Airlines & Aircraft Leasing (Credit)

otherwise offer us any sort of fundamental distraction. So for now, we feel we’ve Mark Streeter, CFA AC

once again returned to an environment where equities disproportionately take their (1-212) 834-5086

cues from oil, making it challenging for us to offer much incremental value...save mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com

for our unchanged thesis that whatever hurts the industry in the short-term Benjamin Stueck

ultimately bolsters the longer-term earnings potential of the margin leaders. (This (1-212) 270-6757

benjamin.stueck@jpmorgan.com

is likely why we didn’t witness a war-driven “Down 30 in 30” correction at United, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

in our view). No equity ratings changes emerge from us, and our estimate revisions