Gentherm: Raise Estimates and PT After Beat and Raise Driven by Strong GoM and Operational Execution; Modine Deal Close on Track for Early 4Q with Buybacks Likely to Ramp

Research evidence excerpt

Gentherm: Raise Estimates and PT After Beat and Raise Driven by Strong GoM and Operational Execution; Modine Deal Close on Track for Early 4Q with Buybacks Likely to Ramp

Changes (FYE Dec)

• Estimate changes. Flowing through the 2Q beat, we update our model to track Prev Cur Δ

toward the higher end of the guidance range and now incorporate the IME Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 2.80 3.05 8.8%

Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 3.30 3.55 7.6%

acquisition for 2H26 and Modine for half of 4Q (not included in management

guidance). We raise our 2026 EBITDA estimate to $215 mn (from $187 mn Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

prior), with 2027/2028 also moving higher to $375 mn/$415 mn (from $368 Adj. EPS ($)

mn/$413 mn prior). Our 2026/2027/2028 EPS estimates move to $3.05/$3.55/ 2025A 2026E 2027E

$4.40 (from $2.80/$3.30/$3.87 prior), reflecting EPS accretion from the Q1 0.51 0.84A 0.79

Q2 0.54 0.75A 0.85

stronger buyback. We establish a new Dec 2027 price target of $48 (vs. our Q3 0.73 0.68 0.86

prior Dec 2026 price target of $41), using a 6.25x EV/EBITDA multiple on our Q4 0.49 0.78 1.05

2028 EBITDA estimate, a ~15% premium to the sector FY2 average of 5.5x, FY 2.28 3.05 3.55

reflecting the company’s more diverse and overall less cyclical end-market

Style Exposure

profile, faster-than-average growth-over-market performance vs. the peer

group, and incremental revenue opportunities in higher-margin adjacent

markets including medical and furniture.

(Calendarquarters)OrganicGrowth%y/yTrackervs.Pers). Organic growth in 2Q tracked at +9%• Organic growth and GoM (Table 42Q26

y/y, accelerating from +7% y/y in 1Q. Management flagged a 2H step-down in

organic growth against tougher comps, including a ~$10 mn y/y headwind

from a BPS program rolling off, with the balance of the moderation attributed