In case you missed it, Japan Most Read Publications: 14 Jul to 20 Jul 2026

Research evidence excerpt

In case you missed it, Japan Most Read Publications: 14 Jul to 20 Jul 2026

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Japan Most Read 24 July 2026

In case you missed it, Japan Most Read Publications: 14 Jul to 20

Jul 2026

Japan Equity Strategy (Rie Nishihara)

Apr-Jun earnings outlook: Mini rotation from AI-driven market, earnings increase in importance

We expect earnings to have a larger impact on share prices during the Apr–Jun earnings season than in Jan–Mar. The market

since late June has seen a mini rotation away from the market driven mainly by AI semiconductors in Apr–Jun, and share price

gains the past three weeks have extended to lagging sectors with positive earnings, including banks, pharmaceuticals,

transportation, and insurance (see our July 13 report). With increased volatility for AI semiconductor stocks, we expect

attention to focus more on non-AI sectors with strong earnings and growing gaps between earnings and share prices. For AI

semiconductor stocks, we believe this could offer an opportunity to assess which AI stocks might actually deliver profit

growth. While we expect confirmation of continued strong earnings for AI servers, semiconductor production equipment (SPE),

electronic components, and electronics majors, we think sectors where valuations have risen sharply on advancing

expectations could see an increase in share price volatility even for modest earnings slowdowns or consensus

shortfalls. Conversely, valuations are lagging for IT services, software, and AI-adopting companies, and we think confirmation

of strong earnings could position these sectors to benefit from a shift away from AI semiconductor stocks. We think key focus

points in Apr–Jun results include (1) upward revisions of earnings guidance in sectors that benefit especially from lower crude