ID Logistics: Robust sales growth in 2Q26; turning more positive on FY26e org. sales growth

Research evidence excerpt

ID Logistics: Robust sales growth in 2Q26; turning more positive on FY26e org. sales growth

Philippe Lorrain +33 1 42 14 75 16 philippe.lorrain@bernsteinsg.com 23 July 2026

DETAILS

CHANGES TO OUR ESTIMATES; BERNSTEIN ESTIMATES VS CONSENSUS

CHANGES TO OUR ESTIMATES

Following the publication of the 2Q26 sales, we increase our sales estimates by close to 4% for FY26 and beyond as: i) we

incorporate the most recent FX developments; and ii) we raise our assumption for FY26 organic growth after the dynamic

performance in 2Q26 (with sales growth accelerating vs 1Q26: +22.6% yoy in 2Q26 vs +17.2% yoy in 1Q26).

We justify our more bullish view by the high number of new project launches in 2Q26, with 12 new projects vs 5 in 1Q26 and 8 in

2Q25. This puts the total at 17 new projects initiated in 1H26 (vs 14 in 1H25), boding well (and even better than we had earlier

expected) for organic growth in the remainder of FY26.

This puts our organic sales growth estimate at +16% yoy for FY26 (vs +12% yoy previously) with our view supported by the

comments made by ID Logistics in the outlook section of its 2Q26 sales press release yesterday evening (French version here):

“ID Logistics intends to continue its organic growth strategy throughout 2026, building on the performance achieved in 2024

and 2025”.

Although we expect further sales growth from more new project launches in FY26, we continue to expect ID Logistics to be able

to increase its adjusted EBIT margin (we forecast a 10bp increase yoy to 4.5%), as, at this stage, we anticipate a similar number of

new project launches in 2H26 as in 2H25 (whereas 1H26 saw as many additional new project launches as in the whole of FY26).

Exhibit 1 summarises the changes to our estimates at the group level.