Kinsale: 2Q26 First Take: Slowing Growth an Indicator of Competition, Margins Held In Year-Over-Year

Research evidence excerpt

Kinsale: 2Q26 First Take: Slowing Growth an Indicator of Competition, Margins Held In Year-Over-Year

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Kinsale Neutral

KNSL, KNSL US

2Q26 First Take: Slowing Growth an Indicator of Price (23 Jul 26):$332.28

Competition, Margins Held In Year-Over-Year

Insurance - Life & Nonlife

KNSL’s premiums declined more than expected and growth ex. property Pablo S. Singzon AC

decelerated, but margins held in. Large account commercial property premiums (1-212) 622-2295

were significantly lower, and growth in lines ex. property slowed as well, similar pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

to what occurred in 1Q26. Meanwhile, the attritional loss ratio improved from Kevin Wijendra

2Q25, more than offsetting a higher expense ratio. We still expect deterioration in (1-212) 622-7054

KNSL’s attritional loss ratio over time, but at a more modest pace vs. consensus. kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• EPS beat. 2Q26 operating EPS of $5.54 came in above our $5.18 estimate and

consensus of $5.08. Adjusting for the unfavorable variance in catastrophe

2Q26 Results

losses and the favorable variance in reserve releases, we estimate KNSL’s EPS

would have been $5.51. Compared to our model, the upside in earnings was EPS: $5.54A vs. $5.18E

driven by higher net earned premiums, a lower combined ratio, and a lower GPW growth: -5.0% vs. -2.2%E

share count from higher share buybacks ($100 million vs. $55 million NPW growth: -1.4% vs. +1.9%E

estimate), partly offset by slightly lower investment income. Underwriting Comb. ratio (CR): 75.5% vs. 77.4%E

income was better than expected ($105 million vs. $96 million, ex. cats and

CR ex. cats and PYD: 78.7% vs. 80.5%E PYD $91 million vs. $82 million), helped by strong margins (CR 75.5% vs.