Brazil Equities Flow of Funds: A Respite That Won’t Last

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Equities Flow of Funds: A Respite That Won’t Last

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

23 July 2026

Brazil Equities Flow of Funds

A Respite That Won’t Last

Foreign flows until July 21st have been positive at R$4.2 billion, reversing the steep Co-head of Emerging Markets Equity

outflows observed in the previous 3 months. In 2Q, R$25 billion left Brazil, or Strategy and Head of LatAm and

about 50% of the accumulated flow observed in 1Q. Despite that, YTD flows are Brazil Strategy

at R$32.6 billion, which is the second best reading ever for the period, underscoring Emy Shayo Cherman AC

the flow strength observed at the start of the year. But circumstances keep (55-11) 4950-6684

changing: emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

• Fed: While at the start of the year the market was pricing Fed cuts, it now prices Cinthya M Mizuguchi

Fed hikes. A lot of this has to do with oil prices. At the aftermath of the ceasefire (55-11) 4950-6560

deal, there was a decline in oil prices, allowing for a bit more risk taking, cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com

especially as the CPI and payroll data in the US came out benign. However, oil

Diego Celedon

prices are now above US$100/bbl, leading to a shooting up of bond yields. If (56-22) 425-5245

this prevails, outflows should be the norm (see figure 1 below). What can diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com

change the story? JPM officials call for the Fed to only hike in 2H27. If the Inversiones J.P. Morgan Limitada

market starts to price this in, it could lead to another respite on the risk taking Adrian E Huerta

front. (52-81) 8152-8720

adrian.huerta@jpmorgan.com

• Tech X Energy: The other source of recent “relief” has been the cooling off J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.