Cheniere: Thoughts Into 2Q26: CCL3 Contributions, No Turnaround Activity Set Up Strong Quarter

Research evidence excerpt

Cheniere: Thoughts Into 2Q26: CCL3 Contributions, No Turnaround Activity Set Up Strong Quarter

Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4915 23 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

LNG Price Target Calculation Cheniere Energy, Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: $334.00)

Investment Thesis

CEI offers investors significant cash flow visibility from the Corpus Christi LNG export

terminal and visible CQP distributions. Cheniere’s recent prints delivered on multiple fronts

– solid results, executing on meaningful buybacks and a commitment to more, and signing

more SPAs. For future growth beyond CCL3, Cheniere progresses the SPL expansion, a

20mtpa project with three full-scale 6.5mtpa trains, which could enter service near the end

of the decade. We would not be surprised to see CCL3 project timeline acceleration given

Cheniere’s track record of conservatism. We continue to see value in the company’s top-tier,

long-term take-or-pay contract portfolio, leverage to incremental LNG demand (and

capturing market share as other sources decline), unrivalled execution, and leading “all of

the above capital allocation” enabled by financial flexibility.

Valuation

We utilize an SOP methodology to increase our Dec-27 PT to $334 (vs. $327 prior). We

appraise CEI’s CQP GP investment with a discounted cash flow valuation. We value the

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Corpus Christi and Cheniere Marketing businesses using separate DCFs and apply discount

rates of 7.0% and 12.5%, respectively. We have lowered our marketing discount rate given

geo-political risk.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Risks to our view on CEI: Asset concentration and counter-party risk should customers fail

to meet commitments.