Carrefour: Cautious stance further reinforced with 1H outcome; reiterate UW

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour: Cautious stance further reinforced with 1H outcome; reiterate UW

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

24 July 2026

Carrefour Underweight

CARR.PA, CA FP

Cautious stance further reinforced with 1H outcome; Price (23 Jul 26):€16.50

reiterate UW Price Target (Dec-27):€9.00

How did we find Carrefour’s 1H Results? European Food Retail

We would be selling the YTD rally. Recall we had placed CA on -CW into 1H Borja Olcese AC

(34-91) 516-1511

earnings (see here), and as anticipated, CA missed an already downgraded borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

operating profit bar into the print by MSD-HSD% in France, and by a similar J.P. Morgan Securities plc

magnitude at the group level as well (miss both vs company-compiled consensus Palak Garg

and BBG consensus). Regardless, management reiterated the FY26 Outlook, (91-22) 6157-5102

which requires a very pronounced profit swing in 2H (operating profit +12% y/y, palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

after +4% y/y in 1H) coupled with substantial FCF generation (underlying cash J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

burn in 1H requires over €3.5bn CF generation in 2H). Whilst we acknowledge

Specialist Sales contact details:

some positives including: (i) the LFL inflection in 2Q (key to monitor its

sustainability), (ii) the reduction in net financial debt (helped by country exits), and Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

European Consumer

(iii) the overdue gross margin investment following price cuts (both o/w might (44-20) 3493-3709

need to continue), we continue to be concerned about the market’s very high olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

expectations, the overall quality of earnings and the lack of cash flow generation

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

(withstanding seasonality plays a role). We reiterate our UW rating, with a Dec-27

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