JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Tech Debate: When hyperscaler capex hikes fail to lift the SOX / Semis & Hyperscalers: More synchronised? / Oil: Brent >$100 / Asian Grid: Revisit... bull-bear debate @ 3pm HK today

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JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Tech Debate: When hyperscaler capex hikes fail to lift the SOX / Semis & Hyperscalers: More synchronised? / Oil: Brent >$100 / Asian Grid: Revisit... bull-bear debate @ 3pm HK today

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APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

23 July 2026

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Tech Debate: When hyperscaler

capex hikes fail to lift the SOX / Semis & Hyperscalers: More

synchronised? / Oil: Brent >$100 / Asian Grid: Revisit... bull-bear

debate @ 3pm HK today

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

APAC Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favoured investment themes.

THE BIG PICTURE: Google capex lift fails to inspire. Google’s slump post their capex lift and transition to negative FCF

territory was much discussed yesterday (albeit the -7% was bigger than I expected). However, the SOX moving lower on a

hyperscaler capex beat-and-raise, warrants debate. It’s a notable change from capex hikes of old - which were gleefully

received by the supply-chain.

Google’s slump shows shareholder dissatisfaction. As the capex sums get ever bigger, they are also getting increasingly

scrutinized. And hyperscaler s/holders evidently feel they aren’t getting an adequate share of the spoils. If s/holder pressures

result in capex growth tapering.. well, that impacts the supply chain too. From here - expect Semis & Hyperscalers moves

could become more synchronised.

Oil rallies back >$100/bbl. It’s the same old story - more military escalation. JPM oil strategist Natasha Kaneva estimates

$13/bbl of geopolitical risk premia is now discounted. From here, if the conflict lasts less than 1 month, we think mid-$90s

oil is likely. Every extra month of conflict (and supply disruption) likely adds $7-8/bbl to Brent.

One thematic to revisit = Asian grid.