2Q26 Flash: Sulfur Pricing and Oil Realizations Drive Beat; Setting a New Higher Bar for Permian Oil Output; Stock Reaction-Slightly Positive

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Flash: Sulfur Pricing and Oil Realizations Drive Beat; Setting a New Higher Bar for Permian Oil Output; Stock Reaction-Slightly Positive

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Ovintiv Inc

2Q26 Flash: Sulfur Pricing and Oil Realizations Drive Overweight

Beat; Setting a New Higher Bar for Permian Oil Output; OVV, OVV US

Stock Reaction-Slightly Positive Price (23 Jul 26):$61.39

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

JPM View. Stock Reaction – Slightly Positive. Despite what we perceive was a Arun Jayaram AC

relatively high bar ahead of the print, we expect the combination of a 5% cash flow (1-212) 622-8541

beat, 1% oil beat vs. JPMe, and a full-year oil guidance raise at in-line capex to arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

support a positive relative day for the shares tomorrow. In total, OVV raised its Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

full-year oil and condensate volumes by 2.5 MBo/d or 1.2% to 211 MBo/d. In (1-212) 622-3795

particular, we believe the market will reward the company’s continued strong pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

execution trends in the Permian (well productivity strength and shallower base Jack Jerusalmi

declines), which supported an increase in 2H26 oil and condensate volumes to 125 (1-212) 622-6552

jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

MBo/d vs. their prior 120 MBo/d plateau rate. The only fly in the ointment was the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

-3% volume miss for natural gas, but this was largely driven by the extended

midstream turnaround in the Montney, which resulted in less Canadian natural gas

output that was priced at AECO. The 5% cash flow beat was driven by 6% higher

oil prices in the Permian as a result of the CMA roll (+$5 per bbl tailwind to oil price

realizations) ,10% higher natural gas prices, which benefitted from $40mm of