Daily Economic Briefing: Once again in triple-digits

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Once again in triple-digits

Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435 Nora Szentivanyi (44-20) 7134-7544 Global Economic Research J P M O R G A Nmaia.crook@jpmorgan.com nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 23 July 2026

Alex Gallin (1-212) 270-5492 Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Focus: Domestic conditions consistenteconomieswithcontinuethe BoK’sto sendincreasinglyconflicting hawkishsignals, withstance.AustraliaA few

shape a hawkish turn andare mismatched.China standing out as cases where activity and inflation

The synchronized global hiking cycle that began in 2022 and In our 3Q26 forecasts, policy rates are below the average Tay-

the easing cycle that followed have largely ended, but they lor-rule estimate in 18 of the 29 economies we track. The

have not given way to a synchronized return to hikes despite rule-implied rate exceeds our policy-rate forecast by about

the renewed common inflation impulse from the Middle East 180bp in the US, 80bp in the Euro area, and 170bp in Japan.

energy shock. The conflict has added near-term headline pres- Policy inertia, uncertainty around neutral rates and slack, and

sure to a backdrop in which underlying inflation was already concern about the growth consequences of the energy shock

expected to remain sticky. But the shock has been choppy, all favor a more gradual response.

and its transmission varies with regulated prices, fiscal cush-

ioning, inventories, and the strength of domestic demand. 3Q26 policy rate, forecast vs Taylor rule

These differences are allowing central banks to respond at % p.a.; Taylor rule is avg of output gap and u-rate measures

different speeds, even as the broad direction of the policy

debate turns more hawkish.