Brazil: Of oil revenues and regulatory taxes

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil: Of oil revenues and regulatory taxes

AmericaBanco J.P. Morgan S.A. Latin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 23 July 2026Mirella Sampaio

(55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

fiscal purpose as a “deviation of purpose”2. PGFN appealed; the industry’s broader challenge

reached the STF through Abep/IBP; and TRF-2 suspended the relief on April 17, allowing

collection to resume.

The legal and political sequence then shifted in July. MP 1.340 reached its 120-day limit on

July 9 without a vote — caducidade, as in 2023 — but the government moved quickly through

the administrative channel: Gecex Resolution 938 maintained the 12% crude rate for 60 days

from July 10, with a 30-day review. A congressional challenge through PDL 770/2026 adds

uncertainty, although there is limited evidence that it will be approved in the near term. One

technical point is worth keeping explicit: the 50% diesel export levy existed only inside MP

1.340’s subsidy clause, while Resolution 938 covers crude oil (NCM 2709) only. In the

absence of a renewal instrument through the evidence cut-off, we treat the diesel leg as lapsed.

The cash evidence is still thin. Official data point to roughly BRL 1.0bn in May, while Finance

Ministry data cited in legal monitoring indicate about BRL 1.05bn collected from March

through May. Without taxpayer-level cash, export volumes, payment lags and information

on judicial deposits, one month of collection should not be treated as a stable run-rate. Still,

it remains unclear whether the tax can deliver the BRL 13.9–17.4bn over 120 days as

anticipated in Senate CONOF’s technical note3.

Table 2: Taxes and contributions related to the oil sector

Type Elasticity and mechanisms Destination

Export and import taxes High, regulatory Union/National Treasury