US Treasury Market Daily: Shark week

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily: Shark week

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

23 July 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

Shark week

Fixed Income Strategy

Jay Barry AC

(1-212) 834-4951

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

Jason Hunter AC

• Voting in the 2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Research Survey is nearly over. (1-212)jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com270-0034

If our work, including flagship US Treasury Market Daily and US Fixed

Harry Downie Income Markets Weekly publications, weekly At Any Rate podcasts, thematic

(1-212) 270-9500

research pieces, or direct dialogue has been valuable to your investment harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

process over the last year, we humbly ask you to support J.P. Morgan in this

Liam L Wash

year’s survey here (1-212) 834-5230

• Within the Global Fixed Income Research Survey, please search for our names liam.wash@jpmchase.com

within the Voting Area search bar. Please vote 5 Stars for J.P. Morgan and us Amanda Berke

where we are listed in the following categories: “Cross Asset Strategy”, (1-212) 834-5739

“Fixed-Income Strategy”, “U.S. Rates Strategy”, “Technical Analysis”, amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

“Interest Rate Derivatives”, “Short-Duration Strategy”, “Treasury Inflation

Protected Securities”, and “Federal Agency Debt Strategy”

• Front-end yields rose by another 5-6bp as speculation intensified about the

potential for a July hike, aided by a hawkish hold from the ECB alongside

stronger domestic data

• 1y1y OIS reached its highest level since mid-2024, and money markets now

price more than a 1/3rd chance of a July hike, though we continue to see room

to the upside in current pricing, and we remain patient before adding outright

duration positions

• The 10-year note backup approaches the next layer of support at the 4.715%