Mexico: Soft data releases, but there‘s more than meets the eye

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: Soft data releases, but there‘s more than meets the eye

AmericaBanco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo FinancieroLatin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 23 July 2026Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

of 0.16%2w/2w for the same fortnight). We believe that easing non-core pressures are

beginning to filter through, as evidenced by softer price dynamics in dairy products, meat

products, and fruit- and vegetable-related goods. Part of this softness was offset by a

0.4%2w/2w increase in alcohol prices.

Within services, the story remained broadly favorable. While overall services inflation came

in only slightly below its historical average for the period (0.20%2w/2w versus

0.22%2w/2w), the benign dynamics within the “other services” continued. Admittedly,

volatile tourism-related services posted another strong increase, but both our trimmed

inflation tracker—which excludes the most and least volatile components—and food

services inflation remained on the soft side, helping to offset some of the pressure. Housing

inflation also remains an anchor for services inflation, despite edging slightly higher.

All in, following today’s release, we estimate headline CPI is tracking 2.15%3m/3m saar—

the lowest since June 2020—while core CPI is tracking 3.59%3m/3m saar, the lowest since

late 2024, as services inflation gradually moderates and goods inflation remains below

3%oya. We now expect both headline inflation and core at 3.9% by the end of the year.

Livestock and processed food

%oya (biweekly)

Dairy products

(core food) 13 Livestock (non-core)

3 Meat (core food)

-2

-7

Jul 19 Apr 20 Jan 21 Oct 21 Jul 22 Apr 23 Jan 24 Oct 24 Jul 25 Apr 26

Source: J.P. Morgan with data from INEGI

"Other services" inflation

%oya