The Point for Australia/NZ

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Australia/NZ

Point |

Friday, 24 July 2026

Company | Industry | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Company

Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) - Potential downside to FY27 consensus earnings

keeps us Neutral, but medium-term outlook appears strong

Auckland International Airport’s (AIA) weak June 2026 passenger growth exit rate,

with domestic and international traffic down approximately 4% and running 13%

to 16% below pre-Covid levels, reinforces ongoing investor concerns regarding a

sluggish traffic recovery. Rising Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices

threaten further capacity cuts in first-half FY27, posing downside risks to

consensus FY27 passenger forecasts and earnings. This traffic weakness also

pressures high-margin non-aeronautical revenue streams, including retail and car

parking. Consequently, we see near-term downside to the share price heading into

the August results and retain our Neutral rating. However, AIA’s medium-term

outlook appears positive, highlighted by a projected 19% EPS growth in FY28

driven by the finalization of the PSE5 pricing period and eventual passenger

recovery, once geopolitical conflicts resolve.

Suraj Nebhani, CFA | Howard Penny | Akshit Batra

Generation Development Group Limited (GDG.AX) - 4Q - Beats on flows,

confidence re growth back on

GDG delivered a solid 4Q but importantly provides greater confidence to investors

that GDG’s medium term growth profile is firmly on track. Delving in, 4Q net flows

beat on both headline and core basis (up $0.3bn qoq to $1.4bn). Encouragingly,

flows outlook seems promising with adviser activity and sales momentum

improving in the quarter couple with the potential for mandate wins. Looking

ahead, our FY27E forecasts are slightly higher to $7.7bn (Figure 2), but with