Costa Rica BOP: More than enough to go around

Research evidence excerpt

Costa Rica BOP: More than enough to go around

AmericaJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC Latin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 23 July 2026Mariana Zepeda

(1-212) 272-0919

mariana.n.zepeda@jpmorgan.com

in 2Q to rise just 1.2%oya in April-June. The industry has been flagging this loss of

momentum since 2025, when visitor growth slowed to 1.1%oya, well below the 8.6%oya

average seen over 2019-2024 (excluding 2020-2022). A key driver appears to be currency

strength: the CRC has appreciated close to 34% since 2022 and around 8% year-to-date in

2026, undermining price competitiveness and even weighing on employment in the sector.

Figure 1: Trade balance

% of quarterly GDP

15 Goods Services

-5

-10

2022 2024 2026

Source: J.P. Morgan, Haver

Not all that glitters is (fresh) FDI

In contrast to the current account, Costa Rica’s financial account strengthened markedly,

though this reflects a one-off. The balance moved from -3.9% of quarterly GDP in 4Q25 to

-7.8% in 1Q26 (BPM6 convention, negative = net inflows). These inflows more than

financed the current account deficit, allowing for reserve accumulation. The improvement

was overwhelmingly driven by direct investment: net inflows rose to -16.6% of GDP in 1Q26

from -5.6% in 4Q25. By contrast, portfolio flows and other investment both swung to net

outflows, at 6.5% and 2.3%, respectively.

The outsized jump in direct investment in 1Q looks largely like a one-off. Costa Rica’s 1Q

direct investment inflow was the largest first-quarter print in decades (since the series began

in 1999) and even came relatively close to matching total inflows for 2025. The surge was

driven by a single transaction: Heineken’s acquisition of Florida Ice & Farm Company

(FIFCO) for roughly $3.25bn, equivalent to about 3% of Costa Rica’s GDP. The deal was