Tractor Supply: Overall, As Expected, With the 2027 Debate for Another Day

Research evidence excerpt

Tractor Supply: Overall, As Expected, With the 2027 Debate for Another Day

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Tractor Supply Neutral

TSCO, TSCO US

Overall, As Expected, With the 2027 Debate for Another Price (22 Jul 26):$29.36

Day

Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

Overall, based on our work, actual 2Q results landed in our view of buyside Leisure

expectations with the $1.90-2.00 guide for 2026 also hitting the mark. The Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

company had some “tariff benefits” in gross margin (which appears reinvested in (1-212) 622-1316

its “price/value” investments so not per se a 2027 lap) and noted positive comps christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

in April and June (we would suspect modestly so). The flat to down 1% comp Christian Carlino, CFA

forecast for 2026 likely embeds negative SSS in 3Q given the much harder (1-212) 622-9145

christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

comparison with QTD trends in focus given the difficulty of the 1Y comparison,

Jolie Wasserman

with bulls citing last year’s performance as driven by two prior very weak July’s

(1-212) 622-1961

similar to LOW’s. One would expect a question on the durability of its 3-5% comp jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

algo, but we note that the 2027 SSS estimate per Consensus Metrix has come down J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

to +2.3% and could tick down further after today’s results (i.e., TSCO may not need

to walk 2027 down on the conference call). Net-net, we continue to expect some

relief in the stock as 2026 appears right-sized and the debate on 2027 moves to

another day.

• TSCO reported mixed results with $0.81 EPS in line with the Street per

Consensus Metrix, with -1.5% comps, below the Street’s -0.3%. More

specifically, +0.2% ticket growth was more than offset by a -1.7% traffic

headwind.