Metal Matters: US Section 232 and MWP: selective tariff relief arrives, but market impact depends on implementation

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Metal Matters: US Section 232 and MWP: selective tariff relief arrives, but market impact depends on implementation

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23 Jul 2026 09:02:00 ET │ 10 pages

Metal Matters

US Section 232 and MWP: selective tariff relief arrives, but market

impact depends on implementation

Wenyu Yao AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-4551

The White House proclamation introduces a pathway for selective tariff wenyu.yao@citi.com

relief while preserving the 50% Section 232 aluminium tariff regime. AC Maximilian J LaytonApproved projects may import primary aluminium at half the applicable

tariff rate, with eligibility extending beyond greenfield investments to +44-20-7986-4556

include expansion and refurbishment projects. While this broadens the pool max.layton@citi.com

of potential applicants, the scale of preferential imports and their impact on AC Tom Mulqueen

US physical availability remain uncertain and will depend on Commerce +44-20-7986-4559approval. Meaningful downside risk to the Midwest Premium would require

approved preferential import volumes large enough to influence the tom.mulqueen@citi.com

ACmarginal replacement tonne. We therefore maintain our 0-3m MWP pt Shreyas Madabushi

target unchanged at $130c/lb (Platts spot 107.35c/lb as of 22 Jul). +91-22-4277-5048

shreyas.madabushi@citi.com

The White House proclamation broadly reflects our longstanding view that any

adjustment to Section 232 aluminium tariffs was more likely to take the form of Viswanathrao Kintali AC

selective easing than a broad rollback (see page 135-136;4Q’25 Commodities +44-20-7986-4982

Market Outlook). The policy introduces a pathway for investment-linked tariff relief viswanathrao.kintali@citi.com

while preserving the 50% Section 232 aluminium tariff regime (Further