JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

23 July 2026

Emerging Markets Corporate

Strategy

Yang-Myung Hong AC

(1-212) 834-4274

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

We published our EM Corporate Fundamentals Checkup, in which we note

Alisa Meyers

that EM corporate earnings are set to increase significantly in 2026, with

(1-212) 834-9151

consensus estimates suggesting +15% revenue and +31% EBITDA growth alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

after posting low-single-digit rises during 2024 and 2025. The strong J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

momentum is driven by a number of sectors that are experiencing exceptional Dhawal U Mehta

EBITDA growth, namely industrials (+91%), metals & mining (+43%), and oil & (91-22) 6157 3779

gas (+24%). The remaining sectors are mostly between 6% and 10%, which is not dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

that different from the trend in recent years. These sectoral dynamics are feeding J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

into the regional level, with Asia (+37%) expected to deliver the strongest EBITDA

growth in 2026 thanks to tech manufacturing.The quarterly earnings trends

substantiates the strong earnings growth momentum for EM corporates.The y/y

growth in revenue and EBITDA for 1Q26 over 1Q25 came in at +13% and +25%,

respectively, which is close to the full-year forecasts. The sequential q/q growth

over 4Q25 is more moderate for revenue at +3%, but the EBITDA growth is a still

robust +26%.

The leverage ratio for EM corporates has been stable at around 2.4x in recent

years on a gross basis and trending slightly lower to 1.2x from 1.3x on net

terms. The improvement is led by Asia, which is benefiting from the earnings

growth in tech manufacturing. The net leverage ratios remain significantly better