European Luxury Goods: Chase(ing) US consumer spending - The mid-July Checkpoint

Research evidence excerpt

European Luxury Goods: Chase(ing) US consumer spending - The mid-July Checkpoint

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

23 July 2026

European Luxury Goods

Chase(ing) US consumer spending - The mid-July

Checkpoint

We track our Chase credit card data to gauge US spending across different European Luxury & Sporting Goods

ACcategories, income brackets, and age cohorts. In the first 15 days of July, total Chiara Battistini

consumer spending grew 4.3%, decelerating from June (+6%). This marked a (39-02) 8895-2700

slower start to Q3 compared to Q2 (average of +5.4%), though remaining slightly chiara.x.battistini@jpmorgan.com

ahead of Q1 (average of +4.1%). Discretionary spending was +4.4%, also J.P.(AsiaMorganPacific)SecuritiesLimited plc/ J.P. Morgan Securities

decelerating from June (+6.4%), and decelerating from a Q2 average of +5.5%. By

Wendy Liu

category, ‘Jewelry stores’ showed sequential deceleration, although still one of the (44-20) 3493-9733

strongest categories, at +7.8% so far in July. Similarly, ‘Sporting goods, hobby, wendy.liu@jpmorgan.com

book & music stores’, ‘Clothing and accessory stores’ and ‘Clothing and footwear’ J.P. Morgan Securities plc

all showed sequential deceleration. By income bracket, all cohorts show slightly Apurva Vishwaraj

moderated discretionary spending trends vs last month, with middle- and upper- apurva.vishwaraj@jpmchase.com

income consumers remaining more resilient and running at c.6% growth so far in J.P. Morgan Securities plc

July. While the slowdown so far is small and the core luxury consumer seems still Victoria Saden

to be more resilient, Americans have been an important driver (in some cases the (44-20) 3493-0435

victoria.saden@jpmorgan.com

only one) for luxury brands to sustain growth against a volatile backdrop. Hence, J.P.