G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 23 July 2026

EUR Early this morning, Employment rose 76.3k in Australia, while the Unemployment rate

remained steady at 4.4%, although this was 2 tenths above the RBA’s forecast. While AUD is

higher post the data, the reaction has been fairly muted and I would argue that next week’s Q2

inflation print is far more important for the short-term fortunes of AUD. Concerns around

current M/E escalation has seen me reduce some of my AUDUSD exposure, but I remain long

AUD against GBP, while I have added a little AUDNZD to the portfolio (energy Importer exporter

dynamic) and will add further if the bird fails to hold onto key support in this 0.5800/30

window, which would suggest further losses. This afternoon the ECB will leave rates on hold,

while Lagarde is expected to deliver a data dependent message that will lean slightly hawkish,

NZD but do little to move the needle on a September hike, (24 bps priced) especially in the current

environment with elevated energy prices and therefore the reaction should be fairly muted.

GBP Escalatory comments keep coming and oil keeps advancing alongside yields but FX markets

paid less attention yesterday, hard to have much conviction here with what feels like a TACO

around the corner with the Fed next week. Focus remains on the more idiosyncratic stories once

of which is the unwinding of the Burnham overshoot in sterling last week. Besides a very minor

unfunded tax cut there is very little to get one’s teeth into to spur fear back into the UK gilt

market and I do think noise will die down quickly now that we are in summer recess so a quick