US HealthTech & Distribution: C2Q Earnings Should Calm Investor Nerves

Research evidence excerpt

US HealthTech & Distribution: C2Q Earnings Should Calm Investor Nerves

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23 Jul 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 51 pages

US HealthTech & Distribution

C2Q Earnings Should Calm Investor Nerves

CITI'S TAKE

Daniel Grosslight AC

We view C2Q earnings as relatively de-risked for the distributors with MCK +1-212-816-9180

and COR unlikely to change messaging around guidance as new CFOs get daniel.grosslight@citi.com

their bearings at both companies (recall, COR reiterated recently raised

guidance in late May LINK). CAH will be the most eventful release, in our Luismario Higuera

view, as they will be introducing FY27 guidance, and we do see upside to our

Pharma AOI estimates largely driven by further integration of recently luismario.higuera@citi.com

acquired MSOs (and distribution onboarding for those MSOs). That said,

our enthusiasm is tempered by potential GMPD headwinds given likely HIX-

driven volume weakness and input/shipping cost volatility driven by the Iran

conflict. For the big 3 distributors, we expect C2Q to steady investor nerves

following a turbulent C1Q as, despite continued mix-shift-driven top-line

volatility, CAH, COR, and MCK are likely to deliver robust AOI growth,

underpinned by sustained specialty momentum.

Part B IRA Negotiation Clarity — We have fielded an increasing # of questions

around how the distributors will navigate the inclusion of Part B drugs in price

negotiations in 2028. While the distributors have successfully navigated Part D WAC

reductions due to the IRA, Part B introduces more complexity as it will impact not

just distribution, but also GPO and MSO profitability. We were encouraged to see

CMS publish proposed guidelines (LINK) which include a manufacturer rebate to