EM Corporate Fundamentals Checkup: Strong earnings growth provides buffers

Research evidence excerpt

EM Corporate Fundamentals Checkup: Strong earnings growth provides buffers

Yang-Myung Hong AC Global Credit Research

(1-212) 834-4274 23 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

Earnings momentum picking up significantly in 2026

EM corporate earnings are set to increase significantly in 2026, with consensus

estimates suggesting +15% revenue and +31% EBITDA growth after posting low-

single-digit rises during 2024 and 2025. The strong momentum is mainly driven by a

number of sectors that are experiencing exceptional EBITDA growth, namely industrials

(+91%), metals & mining (+43%), and oil & gas (+24%). Moreover, some of the largest

companies are leading the increase, leading to an upward bias. Indeed, the median

numbers that we look at for reference show a less exuberant EBITDA growth mostly in

the teens, and more measured at 21% for the industrial sector. That said, the median

growth of the commodity sectors is similar to higher than the aggregate approach,

implying that the growth is more broad based.

The remaining sectors are mostly between 6% and 10%, which is not that different

from the trend in recent years. We note that the consensus estimates by equity analysts

that we use tend to be about 5% higher than our final tally, which may be due to the

availability of estimates being skewed toward larger listed companies. Nevertheless,

even if we discount the aggregate estimates by a conservative 10%, the EBITDA growth

would still be the highest since the post-COVID recovery year of 2021.

Figure 1: Very strong earnings expectations for 2026, skewed by large companies

EM corporate earnings growth and consensus estimates, annual

Revenue growth EBITDA growth

CEMBI BD 2026F - 2026F -

2023 2024 2025 2026F 2023 2024 2025 2026F

weight median median