EM FX: Sales & Trading

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX: Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 23 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Similar range in usd/rub with spot trading between 78.35/65. Some corporate ndf outflows

didn't make a dent on the local market. Focus now turns towards CBR meeting tomorrow. Hard

to see much change in spot ranges until then.

ZAR The rhetoric between the US and Iran continues to sound more aggressive, although

ZAR remains trading well. South African CPI surprised to the upside yesterday with core up to

4.1% from 3.8% and services up to 5.2% from 4.7%. The headline number will be a little

concerning to the SARB, although our strategy note the rise is largely driven by the first

round impact of the energy shock, so is unlikely to result in a 50bps hike today. Regardless, the

headline increase does not look great, and I expect them to definitely hike 25bps today with a

chance they talk about an extended hiking cycle. This helped to support the ZAR yesterday

despite the worsening Middle East picture, and we saw both HFs and RM buying ZAR

yesterday. Still looking to fade rallies above 16.50.

TRY USDTRY remains well contained around state-bank offers currently at 47.2350 with the usual

175 pips adjustment. There were better outflows from offshore clients yesterday which led to

larger than average volumes traded around state bank offers around 47.2175. It will be

important to see the CBT MPC decision at 12 pm ldn time today; the market was expecting to

see the re-introduction of the repo auctions to bring the effective rate back to 37 pct, but the

expectations have been significantly scaled down as a result of the move in energy prices past

couple of weeks.