Country Garden (2007.HK): Target Price Change and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Country Garden (2007.HK): Target Price Change and Model Update

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23 Jul 2026 04:01:00 ET │ 14 pages

Country Garden (2007.HK)

Target Price Change and Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

Target price change and model update — Country Garden has made progress on

debt reduction and delivery obligations. But earnings visibility remains clouded by

weak contracted sales momentum and margin appears under pressure. Given Sell / High Risk

limited growth prospects and likely time needed to turnaround earnings and Short-Term View: Downside

operations, we maintain our Sell/High Risk rating. New TP HK$0.16 (prev. HK$0.25),

Price (22 Jul 26 16:10) HK$0.18set at widened 80% discount to NAV (at 1x SD below hist. avg; from 70%) &

factoring-in enlarged share base due to debt-to-equity swap. Target price HK$0.16↓

from HK$0.25

Offshore & onshore debt restructuring largely completed — The offshore debt Expected share price return -11.1%restructuring was effective on 30 Dec 2025 and covered c.US$17.7bn of offshore

liabilities. The onshore restructuring of 9 corporate bonds passed voting in 2025 and Expected dividend yield 0.0%

progressed with cash repurchase option in 2026. The developments in its debt Expected total return -11.1%

management reflected efforts to stabilize its financial position and address

Market Cap HK$8,346Mliabilities, which could enable Country Garden to better focus on housing delivery

and continue business operations. US$1,064M

Other business progress — 1H26 contracted sales -15%yoy to Rmb14.3bn. It has

actively responded to various supportive govt policies to seek revitalization of assets

through various kinds of measures. It has optimized its organizational structure to Price Performance

enhance efficiency, and undertook cost reduction initiatives.