Auction Technology Group: Another reassuring trading update for Q3 - FY26 revenue guidance upgraded

Research evidence excerpt

Auction Technology Group: Another reassuring trading update for Q3 - FY26 revenue guidance upgraded

Lara Simpson AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-3637 23 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

lara.simpson@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Auction Technology Group (Overweight; Price Target: 665p)

Investment Thesis

We remain constructive on the name, with H2 expectations increasingly de-risked in our

view as management sharpens focus on execution discipline, operational control and

improved predictability under new CEO Duncan Painter, with LiveAuctioneers the key

proof-point for restoring higher-quality growth. We expect a more H2-weighted margin

profile versus H1, supported by Chairish synergy delivery, incremental cost actions (more

meaningful in FY27) and an improving A&A mix as product-led initiatives translate into

higher-margin commission growth, notwithstanding ongoing mix dilution from atgShip/

Chairish. With strong cash generation and ongoing deleveraging supporting balance sheet

optionality into year-end, and valuation still undemanding despite the share price recovery,

we see an attractive risk/reward skew with scope for both earnings upside and further re-

rating as execution confidence rebuilds.

Valuation

We apply a WACC of 10% and terminal growth of 2% for ATG, resulting in a Dec-2027

DCF-based target price of 665p.

ATG DCF

Present value of FCF (27-33)

(GBPm)

Present value of terminal value

Total enterprise value (GBPm) 865

Net debt (cash) (GBPm) 61

Pension deficit 0

Associates 0

Minorities 0

Equity value (GBPm) 803

Fully diluted shares (m) 123.4

Equity value per share Dec-27 665

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key risks to our rating relate to: 1) Weaker-than-expected end-market development, 2)