INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 23, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Main focus overnight was GOOGL earnings: cloud revenue was the standout (+82% YoY, beating

buyside bars), but free cash flow turned negative. Overall, should keep the capex beneficiaries vs

hyperscalers trade alive (Asia AI supply chain basket top of launchpad this morn). Korea extends its

bounce, outperforming APAC peers, as foreign flows turn positive again.

• NDX set to open lower – but this is a playbook we are by now familiar with, as bars were very high

coming into this reporting season (ex. GEV strong earnings -> neg reaction and global spillovers

across Electrification theme incl. ENR). Busy day for EU Tech reporting: NOKIA, STMPA, BESI,

DSY, RELX, BT and SAP.

• Geopolitics continues to worsen, with Houthis hitting tankers in the Red Sea. Our US Energy Spec

writes supply disruptions are not just “re”-emerging, they’re broadening to locations that were

not “at risk” in the first act of the war (chart below on petro-based product prices).

• Getting many qs on Europe’s resilience given geopol + energy & rates backdrop. We share some

thoughts below – keep an eye on UKX vs SX5E ratio: has traded in line with brent and has room to

catch up (outperformance yesterday was notable).

• Central banks coming into focus with ECB today (expect no hike but risk of hawkish guidance into

Sept given recent move in energy markets). BOJ reportedly open to ‘faster rate hike pace’ as yen

adds risk. Econ is out with a relevant note on supply-side uncertainties and challenges for central

banks forecasting/policy decisions.

• EU Rates desk shares thoughts on GPIF spillovers to EGBs – see detail section below.